DNP 810 What is the impact of the aging population on both increased health care expenditures and wasted resources?

Introduction

The societal consequences of population aging, the increasing share of older people in the population, are the subject of extensive public and scholarly debate in many different fields. In health economics, the focus has been largely on the effect of population aging on health expenditure growth (see Payne et al. (2007) for a review). The aging of Western populations stems mainly from decreasing fertility rates, the aging of the post-World War II baby boom generation and longevity gains in general. In Western countries, average health expenditures increased from approximately 5 % of GDP in 1970 to nearly 10 % in 2009 (OECD 2011). The assumed relationship between old age and health expenditure has raised serious concerns about the financial sustainability of health care systems in Western countries. Despite extensive research on the effect of population aging on health expenditure growth, consensus on its role has not yet been achieved. Instead, two contra posing views coexist (Reinhardt 2003). Some analysts and policy makers view population aging as the major cause of the rapid growth in health expenditure. Others, mainly health economists as well as scholars from other fields, have argued that population aging is largely irrelevant for the growth in health expenditure. An important reason as to why these views are able to coexist is a lack of research combining epidemiological insights on the relationship between health and aging with health economic research. Given that changes in underlying health importantly determine the effect of longevity on health expenditures, insights combining health economics and epidemiological evidence are crucial.

It seems obvious that the relationship between age and health expenditures depends on health. As individuals age, their health generally decreases and this in turn leads to increasing utilization of health care. Less clear, however, is how expected increases in longevity relate to health, and to health expenditures. Epidemiological research on the relationship between longevity improvements and health can be broadly characterized by three hypotheses proposed in the 1980s: expansion, compression, and postponement of morbidity (Kramer 1980; Fries 1980; Olshansky et al. 1991; Payne et al. 2007). The expansion hypothesis assumes that longevity gains will increase the period of time lived with morbidity or disability. The compression hypothesis assumes that this period will shrink. In the postponement, or dynamic equilibrium, hypothesis longevity gains are expected merely to shift the period with morbidity or disability to an older age, while its duration remains constant.

Projections of the consequences of aging for health expenditure growth have traditionally been based solely on age, and thus on the implicit assumption that gains in longevity do not alter age-specific risks of disease or poor health. During the last two decades, however, health expenditure models have been developed that do allow for changes in the age profile of health expenditures, most notably by controlling for proximity to death (Zweifel et al. 1999). In general, this line of research has found a much smaller effect of aging on health expenditures than the traditional age-based studies.

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Important information for writing discussion questions and participation

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Your initial discussion post should be a minimum of 200 words and response posts should be a minimum of 150 words. Be advised that I grade based on quality and not necessarily the number of words you post. A minimum of TWO references should be used for your initial post. For your response post, you do not need references as personal experiences would count as response posts. If you however cite anything from the literature for your response post, it is required that you cite your reference. You should include a minimum of THREE references for papers in this course. Please note that references should be no more than 5 years old except recommended as a resource for the class. Furthermore, for each discussion board question, you need ONE initial substantive response and TWO substantive responses to either your classmates or your instructor for a total of THREE responses. There are TWO discussion questions each week, hence, you need a total minimum of SIX discussion posts for each week. I usually post a discussion question each week. You could also respond to these as it would count towards your required SIX discussion posts for the week.

I understand this is a lot of information to cover in 5 weeks, however, the Bible says in Philippians 4:13 that we can do all things through Christ that strengthens us. Even in times like this, we are encouraged by God’s word that we have that ability in us to succeed with His strength. I pray that each and every one of you receives strength for this course and life generally as we navigate through this pandemic that is shaking our world today. Relax and enjoy the course!

Hi Class,

Please read through the following information on writing a Discussion question response and participation posts.

Contact me if you have any questions.

Important information on Writing a Discussion Question

• Your response needs to be a minimum of 150 words (not including your list of references)
• There needs to be at least TWO references with ONE being a peer reviewed professional journal article.
• Include in-text citations in your response
• Do not include quotes—instead summarize and paraphrase the information
• Follow APA-7th edition
• Points will be deducted if the above is not followed

Participation –replies to your classmates or instructor

• A minimum of 6 responses per week, on at least 3 days of the week.
• Each response needs at least ONE reference with citations—best if it is a peer reviewed journal article
• Each response needs to be at least 75 words in length (does not include your list of references)
• Responses need to be substantive by bringing information to the discussion or further enhance the discussion. Responses of “I agree” or “great post” does not count for the word count.
• Follow APA 7th edition
• Points will be deducted if the above is not followed
• Remember to use and follow APA-7th edition for all weekly assignments, discussion questions, and participation points.
• Here are some helpful links
• Student paper example
• Citing Sources
• The Writing Center is a great resource