PHE4070 Assignment Growing Rates in Diabetes Prevalence
PHE4070 Assignment Growing Rates in Diabetes Prevalence
OBJECTIVE—To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates—predicted from 1980–1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey—with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections.
RESULTS—The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged ≥75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000–2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates.
CONCLUSIONS—If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.
Projection model
The model is similar to those used in other studies (7,8,9) and involves combining prevalence data with population projections. Specifically, to project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes (henceforth, diabetes) from 2000 to 2050, we multiplied the U.S. Census Bureau’s age-, sex-, and race-specific population projections by predicted diabetes prevalence rates for each age, sex, and race subgroup.
Data
Data on the age-, sex-, and race-specific prevalence of diabetes from the U.S. representative National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used. The NHIS is an annual survey that asks a subsample of respondents in each year whether any household member has diabetes. Diabetes prevalence data based on the NHIS are available by race (whites, including whites of Hispanic origin; blacks, including black Hispanic; and other, comprised of Asians, Pacific Islanders, and Native Americans) for the years 1980–1998, and these data are reported for male and female respondents and the following four age-groups: 0–44, 45–64, 65–74, and ≥75 years (1). These prevalence rates for whites and blacks are listed in Tables 1 and 2. Predicted prevalence rates were determined by regressing the 19 years (1980–1998) of age-, sex-, and race-specific prevalence rates of diabetes against time. In all cases, the coefficient on time was positive and significant,
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Hi Class,
Please read through the following information on writing a Discussion question response and participation posts.
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Important information on Writing a Discussion Question
- Your response needs to be a minimum of 150 words (not including your list of references)
- There needs to be at least TWO references with ONE being a peer reviewed professional journal article.
- Include in-text citations in your response
- Do not include quotes—instead summarize and paraphrase the information
- Follow APA-7th edition
- Points will be deducted if the above is not followed
Participation –replies to your classmates or instructor
- A minimum of 6 responses per week, on at least 3 days of the week.
- Each response needs at least ONE reference with citations—best if it is a peer reviewed journal article
- Each response needs to be at least 75 words in length (does not include your list of references)
- Responses need to be substantive by bringing information to the discussion or further enhance the discussion. Responses of “I agree” or “great post” does not count for the word count.
- Follow APA 7th edition
- Points will be deducted if the above is not followed
- Remember to use and follow APA-7th edition for all weekly assignments, discussion questions, and participation points.
- Here are some helpful links
- Student paper example
- Citing Sources
- The Writing Center is a great resource